网友对郎咸平的回复

针对《郎咸平:2008中国经济走势》一文,很多网友都表示了赞成。但是,也有一位网友提出了不同的观点。来自德国的网友Jun留言说:

Money always chases after higher return possible, and two directions are by no means unique to China. Take a look what happens to the oil market today, it is going up and up wile the demand is down and down, and you will understand the tremendous impact of hot money. What 郎 fails to recognize in his answer is that money invested in the manufactory is suppose to be long term (five years and longer) while investment (Real estate, commodity, stock, etc) is short term. Somehow he, and others, seems to believe that one should expect immediate return of any investment. That has never been the case in any industry other than investment. Any Economy, even free market, has its cycles of up and downs. While the impact of the cycle is inevitable and causing pains to all, it flash out the weak ones who just want to get quick returns or don’t know how to manage the downturn, and makes survivors stronger. Chinese manufacture need consolidation and this downturn should help. When you are big enough, bank will go after you and when there are not many small players willing to take 2% profit, the rest can ask for 5% or more.
Economy has never been about happy to all but a few survivors.
Also, we have more than our shares of popular economists, but way too few serious scholars. Maybe Lang should think to become one given he has what it takes. I gave up on “Li Stock” long time ago.

网友对郎咸平的回复》上有3条评论

  1. 反驳: The first half of your comment doesn’t contradict with Lang’s speech — If you had read it carefully. The second half is ridiculous — You failed to understand why these Chinese manufacturers are extremely vulnerable in front of current boom and bust cycles, and why consolidations, go-after-you-when-you-are-big-enough banks, etc. as you proposed, simply won’t help at all.

  2. 回复: I didn’t say Lang’s observation on the market was wrong, I simply point out it was not “China only”. However, while he lays out the facts that are well known, his solution, based on short term view, of not investing in manufacturing is shortsighted.
    As it has happened in US and elsewhere, consolidation has proven to be effective in improving efficiency and profit margin. Without support of facts, you argument failed to convince me otherwise.

  3. 这些情形当然不是中国特有的,但我敢说中国目前的“程度”在世界上没有先例。

    你从实证的角度来看,consolidation是好东西;那我还说从规范的角度看,这是引起社会动荡的火药桶。

    不懂经济学,但我觉得以上两点是必须承认的:首先是中国的特殊性;其次也是更重要的经济学不是沙盘推演,哪怕是统计数据的0.1个百分点对于老百姓也意义很大的。。。

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